Row Crops Today — June 4, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
🌍 USDA's Vaden says China is placing new soybean orders, pledged 25 MMT from 2026 crop
💰 Schnitkey projects soybean returns more than $100/acre above corn for 2027
⛽ American Petroleum Institute sues EPA to block RFS biofuel mandates through 2028
🌽 Brazil's second-largest corn crop on record headed to export by August
🏭 CHS to close three southern Minnesota elevators, removing 6M bushels of storage
Top Story
🌍 USDA's Vaden says China is placing new soybean orders, pledged 25 MMT from 2026 crop. — LINK
Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden said China has begun placing orders for U.S. soybeans currently being planted and is on track to honor a pledge to buy 25 million metric tons from the 2026 harvest. China bought only 12 million tons of the 2025 crop — below its typical 25 million to 30 million ton range — making the 25 MMT pledge more than double last year's actual U.S. purchases. "China has started placing orders for soybeans that are being planted right now across the U.S.," Vaden said at The Wall Street Journal's Global Food Forum. Reuters data show China's April U.S. soybean imports more than doubled year-on-year to 3.33 million tons from 1.38 million tons, though year-to-date U.S. shipments to China through April are still down 48% to 6.7 million tons, while Brazil's are up 39.6% to 12.7 million tons.
More This Week
💰 Illinois economist projects 2027 soybean returns over $100/acre above corn. — LINK
University of Illinois farm management specialist Gary Schnitkey projects some fertilizers will cost farmers more than $1,000 per ton heading into 2027, with projected soybean returns running over $100 per acre above corn.
"I think farmers are going to really have to look at switching more acres in soybeans because I would anticipate soybeans will still be projected to be more profitable," Schnitkey told Brownfield.
Schnitkey says ongoing global supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict are expected to keep fertilizer prices elevated this fall, when most producers begin purchasing inputs for the following year's crop.
⛽ API files federal lawsuit challenging EPA biofuel mandates through 2028. — LINK
The American Petroleum Institute filed a federal lawsuit June 3 seeking to block EPA's expanded Renewable Fuel Standard blending targets through 2028, directly challenging the ethanol demand that absorbs roughly 40% of the U.S. corn crop.
The action is a new legal filing distinct from earlier RFS regulatory litigation brought by ethanol-industry petitioners.
The contested EPA rule sets renewable volume obligations running through 2028 and is the framework underpinning corn-ethanol blending requirements at U.S. refineries.
🌽 Brazil's second-largest corn crop will hit export market in August. — LINK
Brazil is harvesting what market advisor Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing says would be the country's second-largest corn crop on record, with safrinha supplies ready for export in August.
"This is when Brazil typically becomes a larger competitor than the United States. We'll want to be watching to see if China ramps up purchases of South American corn," said Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing.
Blohm said global corn ending stocks are starting to edge lower on strong demand, and that a weather problem in either the U.S. this summer or Brazil in the coming year could push 2026/27 corn prices higher.
🏭 CHS to close three southern Minnesota elevators after 2026 harvest. — LINK
CHS will close or sell grain elevators in Kasson, Ostrander and Wykoff, Minnesota after the 2026 harvest, leaving more than 6 million bushels of regional storage capacity in question after the cooperative reported a second-quarter net loss of $147.1 million — a 95% increase over the $75.8 million loss a year earlier.
"CHS has recently made significant investments in Mankato and Fairmont and more farmers in this area are now delivering directly to those facilities," said Jim Morken, senior director of operations at CHS.
The closures follow CHS's 2025 shutdowns of elevators in Claremont, Minnesota and Superior, Wisconsin, and a grain terminal at the Port of Duluth-Superior; the company also completed a new facility in Worthing, South Dakota in July 2025.
Basis Watch
North Dakota Central soybeans firmed as much as 15 cents on Wednesday, leading old-crop bean basis higher across the northern Plains. North Dakota East Central added 10 cents on the top end, and Ohio East Central beans strengthened 10 cents on both ends of the range. Iowa Northwest and Missouri Central each improved 5 cents. The Illinois Little Egypt and Southwest locations bucked the trend, with the low end at Little Egypt softening 4 cents and Southwest's high end weakening 4 cents.
On the corn side, Kansas Northwest improved 10 cents on the high end. Illinois Little Egypt corn weakened 5 cents on its low end. Smaller 5-cent gains were noted at Nebraska Northwest, Missouri West, Missouri Central, Missouri Northwest, and Ohio East Central. Both North Dakota Central and East Central corn firmed 5 cents on the top.
Source: USDA AMS
China's imports of U.S. soybeans more than doubled in April 2026 to 3.33 million metric tons from 1.38 million a year earlier — but year-to-date U.S. shipments to China are still down 48%, while Brazil's are up 39.6%.
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