Row Crops Today — May 6, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
📊 USDA's corn acreage estimate revised up 4.5 million acres after record-low survey response
🌽 Corn 38% planted and soybeans 33% planted as of May 3, both ahead of five-year average
💰 Soybean oil futures hit $1,656/tonne — highest since spring 2022 — on EPA biofuel mandate
📉 Purdue/CME Ag Barometer falls to 121 in April as two-thirds expect lower 2026 income
🚜 Michigan corn grower nets $250 on a 1,000-bushel load as diesel jumps 50%
Top Story
📊 USDA's corn acreage estimate revised up 4.5 million acres after record-low survey response. — LINK
The USDA initially pegged 2025 harvested corn acreage at 86.8 million acres before quietly revising to 91.3 million — a 5% upward swing larger than the state of Delaware that landed in already-soft commodity markets and triggered the sharpest single-day Chicago corn drop in years after January's surprise crop report. The miss coincides with a record-low response rate to the agency's March prospective plantings survey — just over a third of 73,800 farm operations replied, down from roughly 60% in 2018 — and follows the loss of about 300 of 800 positions at the National Agricultural Statistics Service. "This isn't the farmers' fault, per se, but it also can't be solved without them," said Seth Meyer, former USDA chief economist and now director of the University of Missouri's Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute. NASS in an emailed statement said it "remains committed to providing timely, accurate, and useful statistics in service to American agriculture" and is working to address declining response rates.
More This Week
🌽 Corn 38% planted, soybeans 33% planted as of May 3. — LINK
USDA NASS reported corn at 38% planted nationally — 4 points ahead of the five-year average of 34% — and soybeans at 33% planted, 10 points ahead of the five-year average of 23%; corn emergence at 13% is 4 points ahead of average.
"Top producing states such as Iowa and Illinois have moved over the one-third completion mark," said Rhett Montgomery, DTN Lead Analyst.
Tennessee leads corn planting at 87% complete; Louisiana leads soybeans at 84%; DTN ag meteorologist John Baranick said a major front will bring widespread rain through Friday with snow possible from Cheyenne to Denver and into western Nebraska and Kansas.
💰 Soybean oil futures hit highest level since spring 2022. — LINK
May soybean oil futures on the CBOT rose 5.2% on the week to $1,656/tonne — up 7.7% month-over-month and 57% year-over-year — after EPA in late March set Renewable Fuel Standard targets requiring biodiesel and renewable diesel output to climb from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to 5.4 billion gallons in 2026 and 5.7 billion in 2027.
Per EPA estimates, actual supply must reach 6.07 billion gallons because some biofuels are exported or do not generate offset credits, requiring roughly 915 million RIN credits per month — well above current generation rates.
Iowa biodiesel plants have reached maximum capacity, and Minnesota Soybean Processors has restarted a previously idled plant with plans to ramp to 35 million gallons by year-end.
📉 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer falls to 121 in April. — LINK
The April Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 121 from 127 in March; the Farm Capital Investment Index dropped 9 points to 44 — its lowest reading since October 2024 — and roughly two-thirds of the 400 producers surveyed April 13–17 expect lower 2026 net farm income.
"Producers are still under pressure from high input costs, and this month we observed a slight rise in concerns about fertilizer availability," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture.
Among 2025 corn growers, 37% anticipate 2026 break-even prices rising 10% or more; the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index slipped from 125 to 121 and the Long-Term Index fell from 159 to 155.
🚜 Michigan corn grower nets $250 on a 1,000-bushel load. — LINK
Monroe County, Michigan grower John Delmotte nets roughly $250 on a 1,000-bushel load at $4.50/bu after farm diesel jumped from $2.94/gal last summer to $4.57/gal — a 50%+ increase — and fertilizer prices climbed as much as 49%, adding $6,000 to $10,000 in fuel costs alone on his 1,200-acre operation.
"Most farms are losing money on every acre they grow," said John Delmotte, president of the Michigan Corn Growers Association. "And yet we show up every day with hopes that things will turn around."
Between 20% and 30% of global fertilizer normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz; a recent Farm Bureau survey found 48% of Midwest farmers cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year, and Michigan lost roughly 1,300 farms between 2023 and 2024 — one farm closing or being absorbed every seven hours.
Basis Watch
On Tuesday, May 5th, old-crop corn basis firmed 8 cents at the low end in Illinois West, while Illinois Little Egypt weakened 6 cents on the bottom of its range. Old-crop corn declined 5 cents in Missouri North Central and softened 5 cents at the top end in North Dakota Northeast. New-crop December corn weakened 5 cents at the high end in Minnesota South. Smaller 2 to 4 cent moves filled out locations across Nebraska, Iowa, and South Dakota.
In soybeans, old-crop basis improved 15 cents at the top of the range in North Dakota Central, and new-crop November bids in Illinois North strengthened 10 cents on the high end. The 25-cent gain in Missouri North Central old-crop soybeans was well above what any other location reported.
Source: USDA AMS
Brazilian and Argentine soybean oil is currently offered at $1,100–$1,200/tonne FOB versus $1,656/tonne on the CBOT, putting the U.S. biofuel-mandate premium at $450–$500 per tonne over South American supply.
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