Row Crops Today — May 13, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
📊 USDA cuts new-crop corn production nearly 1 billion bushels, soybean carryout to 310M
📊 Old-crop corn stocks rise to 2.142B bu, soybeans trimmed to 340M on stronger crush
🌍 Analysts peg China soybean buy at ~12 MMT ahead of May 14–15 Xi-Trump summit
🏭 Senators press Trump officials to lift Moroccan, Russian phosphate duties
📋 Senate farm bill path tangled by SNAP, pesticides, and year-round E15
Top Story
📊 USDA cuts new-crop corn production nearly 1 billion bushels, soybean carryout to 310M. — LINK
USDA's May WASDE lowered new-crop corn production to just under 16 billion bushels and set 2026/27 soybean ending stocks at 310 million bu — below the 340 million bu old-crop figure — even with 3.5 million more soybean acres. New-crop corn ending stocks came in at 1.957 billion bu, down 185 million from last season and just under the psychological 2.0 billion mark, though still above trade estimates. USDA projected 2026/27 farm prices of $4.40/bu corn and $11.40/bu soybeans. Wheat futures ended limit up after a 36% cut to the hard red winter crop, dragging corn and soybean futures with them. "I was at 1.833 billion bushels. So I do think there's some downside to this. But regardless, once you slip below 1.5 billion, that's when the market starts caring," said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX. USDA pegged 2026/27 global corn carryout at 277.5 MMT, down 19.4 MMT from last season.
More This Week
📊 Old-crop corn stocks rise to 2.142B bu, soybeans trimmed to 340M. — LINK
USDA raised old-crop corn ending stocks 15 million bushels to 2.142 billion bu while cutting old-crop soybean stocks 10 million bushels to 340 million bu on stronger crush demand.
2026/27 projected season-average farm prices were set at $4.40/bu for corn and $11.40/bu for soybeans, both above current marketing year levels.
New-crop soybean acreage was lifted 3.5 million acres, but ending stocks still dropped to 310 million bu — below the old-crop carryout figure.
🌍 Analysts peg China soybean buy at ~12 MMT ahead of Xi-Trump summit. — LINK
Analysts expect any farm-purchase agreement out of the May 14–15 Trump-Xi summit to deliver roughly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybean buying from China — about half the 25-million-ton annual figure pushed by some U.S. farm groups.
"China only buys about 12 million metric tons. I don't see them buying the 25 million metric tons because A, these numbers show that we don't have it and they don't have the room in their reserve for it," said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX.
China's wheat stocks sit near a 10-year low and corn stocks near a 13-year low, raising the possibility wheat and corn — not just soybeans — appear in any final trade deal.
🏭 Senators press Trump officials to lift phosphate import duties. — LINK
At a May 12 Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) called countervailing duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphate the "No. 1 issue" for farmers, with Mosaic controlling more than 60% of U.S. phosphate production.
Lawmakers and farm-group witnesses urged USDA and Commerce Department officials to revisit the duties, citing global supply pressure tied to Strait of Hormuz disruption.
The hearing follows months of producer complaints over fertilizer costs and comes as USDA's May WASDE flagged reduced fertilizer use as a factor in lower projected planted area for Southern Hemisphere crops.
📋 Senate farm bill path tangled by SNAP, pesticides, and E15. — LINK
The House-passed farm bill (H.R. 7567) needs 60 votes to advance in the Senate, with three flashpoints — pesticide preemption language, SNAP benefit changes, and year-round E15 — each capable of stalling the commodity title.
"The divisions over those issues could pose challenges for the Senate farm bill after the House passed its version, since the Senate requires more bipartisan consensus due to the 60-vote threshold," Bloomberg Government reported.
The commodity title row crop producers are watching — including reference price updates and crop insurance changes — moves only after senators resolve the three contested areas.
Basis Watch
South Dakota East Central soybean basis firmed 15 cents on Tuesday, the day's largest move across either crop. South Dakota Southeast followed with a 12-cent improvement, both on the old-crop July contract. Kentucky Bluegrass soybeans went the other direction, weakening 5 cents on the May contract. Elsewhere the soybean complex was quiet, with Illinois Southwest and Kentucky Pennyrile shifting only a couple of cents.
In corn, Nebraska Southwest old-crop firmed 10 cents on the July, the standout move. Kentucky Bluegrass broke 6 cents on May old-crop and softened another 5 cents on December new-crop. Nebraska Northeast weakened 5 cents, while Colorado North Central and North Dakota Central each improved 5 cents. Other Corn Belt locations posted 1 to 3 cent changes.
Source: USDA AMS
USDA's May WASDE cut U.S. hard red winter wheat production 36% year-over-year — the smallest U.S. wheat harvest since 1972 — as high input costs drove roughly 17% acreage abandonment in Kansas alone.
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