Row Crops Today — April 29, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
🌽 U.S. corn planting hits 25% as of April 26, six points ahead of five-year average
📋 MAHA-aligned GOP rebellion over pesticide provision threatens farm bill House vote
📊 FAPRI projects corn at $4.09–$4.21/bu through 2028, net farm income falling to $119.6B
🔬 EPA final RFS rule sets 2026–2027 biomass-based diesel RVOs at 9.07–9.20 billion gallons
Top Story
🌧️ Severe weather threatens newly emerged crops across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. — LINK
Severe storms carrying hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall are moving across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this week, putting newly emerged corn and soybean stands at risk in the heart of the Corn Belt. The threat lands as Illinois corn planting reached 29% complete, Indiana 30%, and Missouri 40% as of the week ending April 26, according to USDA's latest Crop Progress report — meaning millions of acres of seedlings and recently planted fields are exposed to hail damage, ponding, and stand loss. A cooler, wetter pattern is forecast to settle across the region through the end of April, slowing fieldwork and pushing soil temperatures back down at a critical emergence window. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig said in a separate USDA progress statement that "outlooks into May are showing the potential for cooler and drier weather after a very active stretch of severe weather." Producers in affected counties have already reported planters parked since Friday, April 24, with rain returning over the weekend across central and southern Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
More This Week
🌽 U.S. corn planting hits 25%, six points ahead of five-year average. — LINK
USDA's Crop Progress report pegged U.S. corn planting at 25% complete as of April 26, six points ahead of the five-year average, with Kentucky at 69%, Missouri at 40%, Indiana at 30%, Illinois at 29%, Kansas at 29%, Minnesota at 26%, and Nebraska at 26%.
"The hammer dropped this week for corn planting in east central Illinois. Beginning April 22, many farmers planted through Saturday, April 25," said Robby Meeker, agronomist for Wyffels Hybrids.
Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Dakota remain at 3% or below; the March 31 Prospective Plantings report projected 95.3 million U.S. corn acres for 2026.
📋 MAHA pesticide revolt threatens House farm bill passage. — LINK
Republican Reps. Thomas Massie (KY), Nancy Mace (SC), Anna Paulina Luna (FL), and Chip Roy (TX) are publicly opposing a pesticide liability provision in the House farm bill; Mace introduced an amendment to strip what she calls the "pesticide loophole," and Luna said the bill "must be stopped."
"The language that we have basically addresses what our farmers need," said Rep. Glenn Thompson, R-Pennsylvania, chair of the House Committee on Agriculture, defending the provision at an April 27 hearing and rejecting the "liability shield" characterization.
The same provision nearly derailed a government funding bill in January before being killed by MAHA opposition, then reappeared in the farm bill; the Supreme Court heard arguments April 27 in a related case on shielding Bayer from Roundup cancer liability.
📊 FAPRI projects corn at $4.21 through 2028, net farm income falling to $119.6B. — LINK
FAPRI projects corn at $4.09/bu in 2025–26, $4.21 in 2026–27, and $4.20 from 2027–28 through 2035–36; soybeans at $10.21, $10.39, and $10.40; PLC payments are expected to average about $31 per base acre over the next 10 years.
"After crops declined from the 2022 highs, input prices also declined, but at a much slower pace. This has led to a tightening of net market returns for crops," said Robert Maltsbarger, senior economist with FAPRI.
U.S. net farm income is projected to fall from above $152 billion in 2025–26 to $119.6 billion annually from 2027 to 2035; the farm debt-to-asset ratio is projected to rise from 13.5% in 2025 to 14.3% by 2027–35.
🔬 EPA final RFS rule lifts biomass-based diesel RVOs to 9.07–9.20B gallons. — LINK
EPA's March 27 final "Set 2" rule sets total applicable biomass-based diesel volumes at 9.07 billion RIN gallons for 2026 and 9.20 billion for 2027 — increases of 67% and 70% over the 2025 total of 5.42 billion gallons.
"The increases in biomass-based diesel RVOs for 2026 and 2027 are unprecedented in the history of the RFS," the University of Illinois farmdoc analysis stated, noting the previous record year-over-year increase was 28% in 2013.
Required D4 net RIN generation must jump from 7.10 billion gallons in 2025 to 10.99 billion in 2026; the rule confirms 70% reallocation of 2023–2025 small refinery exemptions and delays the half-RIN penalty for imported biofuel and feedstock until 2028 or later.
Basis Watch
Old-crop corn basis strengthened across the Upper Midwest, with North Central Minnesota posting the largest move of the day at +5¢ on the May contract, bringing the range to –75¢ to –58¢. Northwest Iowa advanced 4¢ to –40¢ to –20¢. Indiana showed mixed signals: Central Indiana moved 3¢ to trade into positive territory at +8¢ on the top bid, while Northeast Indiana held steady at +9¢. Southeast Iowa moved just 1¢ higher to –50¢ to –8¢.
Old-crop soybean basis also strengthened in key locations, with Southeast Iowa gaining 5¢ to –85¢ to –39¢. Illinois locations presented notable spreads: Little Egypt traded with bids ranging from –22¢ to +30¢ after a 5¢ gain on the bottom, while Southwest Illinois moved 5¢ to –28¢ to +9¢. Southeast Minnesota added 5¢ across both May and July contracts, with the range at –100¢ to –62¢. Northeast Missouri moved 2¢ higher to –39¢ to –26¢.
U.S. net farm income is projected to fall from above $152 billion in 2025–26 to $119.6 billion annually from 2027 through 2035, according to the University of Missouri's FAPRI baseline.
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