Headline Stack
🌽 Allendale survey pegs 2026 corn acres at 93.678M, down 5.11M from last year
📋 Rollins plans to deploy tariff revenue to fertilizer; 30M base acres coming in 4–6 weeks
💰 Urea hits $702.25/ton, up 81.69% year-to-date on Hormuz closure
🔬 EPA's new OTT dicamba rules mandate 240-foot buffers and halve seasonal limits
📊 Weekly corn export inspections reach 1.669 MMT, up 31.79% on the marketing year
Top Story
🌽 Allendale survey indicates a 5.1-million-acre drop in corn intentions. — LINK
Allendale's 25th annual acreage survey projects 93.678 million corn acres in 2026, down 5.11 million from last year, with soybean planted area rising 4.444 million acres to 85.659 million. The survey, conducted March 2–13 across 26 states, found the largest soybean expansion concentrated in the western Corn Belt, with some regions shifting as much as 15% to 18% of corn ground into soybeans. "We saw some areas in some specific regions of some states in the western Corn Belt where a region within a state might be making as much as a 15% or maybe 18% movement away from corn into soybeans. Over in the eastern Corn Belt almost everybody's doing a relatively slow, light and consistent movement," said Rich Nelson, Allendale chief economist. Applied to trend yields, the numbers imply a 15.693-billion-bushel corn crop at 183 bpa — 62 million bushels below USDA's February Ag Outlook Forum — and a 4.528-billion-bushel soybean crop at 53.5 bpa, above USDA's 4.45-billion-bushel outlook projection.
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📋 Rollins teases fertilizer plan; 30M base acres coming in 4–6 weeks — LINK
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins told a House Appropriations Ag Subcommittee hearing that "tens and tens and tens of billions of dollars" from tariff revenue and trade renegotiations could be deployed toward fertilizer infrastructure, with new capacity estimated 12 to 18 months from coming online.
"In the next four to six weeks, you'll be seeing an announcement and how we're going to be moving forward with roundtables, traveling around the country, meeting with producers, fully understanding where we are and how we do this in an intentional way that properly captures what this additional 30 million acres will mean for our farmers and ranchers in these programs," Rollins said.
The 30-million base-acre expansion was authorized in last summer's budget reconciliation bill and marks the first opportunity to establish new base acres since the 2002 farm bill.
💰 Urea at $702.25/ton, up 81.69% year-to-date — LINK
Urea settled at $702.25/ton for the week ending April 20 — up 0.14% on the week, 15.12% on the month and 81.69% year-to-date — while DAP held at $722.50/ton, up 11.58% on the month, and sulfur in China ran 158.73% above year-ago levels.
"Fertilizer prices remained under structural pressure in the week ending April 20, with the renewed Strait of Hormuz closure amplifying supply chain risks across the nitrogen, phosphate and sulfur complexes," the iGrow News weekly update stated.
The FOB Middle East urea route remains effectively closed to commercial traffic following the IRGC's April 18 strait declaration and the U.S. Navy's April 19 seizure of the Touska; vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope are adding 10 to 14 days to voyage times.
🔬 EPA's new OTT dicamba rules mandate 240-foot buffers — LINK
EPA registrations issued in early February cover OTT dicamba products for the 2026 and 2027 growing seasons only, with seasonal application totals roughly halved versus prior labels and a prohibition on applications when forecasted highs reach 95°F or higher.
"Strongest safeguards ever," the Environmental Protection Agency said of the new framework, according to RFD-TV's report on the updated rules.
Drift mitigation requirements now include a mandatory 240-foot downwind buffer, limits on wind speed and spray height, a continued ban on aerial applications, and conservation point thresholds met through practices such as cover crops, grass waterways or contour farming.
📊 Weekly corn export inspections up 31.79% on the marketing year — LINK
USDA FGIS tallied corn export shipments at 1.669 MMT (65.7 mbu) for the week ending April 16, 2.89% above the prior week; marketing-year exports since September 1 stand at 51.71 MMT (2.036 billion bushels), 31.79% above the same period last year.
Mexico was the top destination at 507,053 MT, followed by Japan at 352,667 MT and South Korea at 277,579 MT.
Weekly Commitment of Traders data showed managed money cut 59,149 contracts from their net-long position in the week ending April 14, mainly via new short interest, taking the net long to 159,483 contracts of futures and options.
Urea is up 81.69% year-to-date at $702.25 per ton as the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to squeeze global nitrogen supply.