Row Crops Today — May 22, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
🌽 Old-crop corn export sales hit 83.7M bushels, 71% above 4-week average
💰 Iowa retail diesel averages $5.33 a gallon, up from $3.35 a year ago
📋 USDA reinstates Crop Inputs Economist within Office of the Chief Economist
🚜 Deere projects 15–20% drop in U.S./Canada large ag equipment sales for 2026
🌧️ Climate Prediction Center puts El Niño odds at 82% within three months
Top Story
🌽 Old-crop corn export sales hit 83.7 million bushels for the week ending May 14. — LINK
USDA's weekly export sales report pegged old-crop corn at 2,125,300 tons — 83.7 million bushels — a sharp rebound from the prior week and 71% above the four-week average. Japan picked up 779,800 tons and South Korea purchased 463,800 tons, while unknown destinations canceled 356,500 tons. Marketing-year corn exports now stand at 3.145 billion bushels, compared to 2.491 billion at the same point last year. Old-crop soybeans also rebounded after consecutive weeks of marketing-year lows, coming in at 351,400 tons (12.9 million bushels), 62% above the four-week average. "Export demand is influenced by several factors, including the value of the dollar, geopolitics, and seasonal supply changes," USDA noted in the report. Sorghum sales totaled 14,500 tons, with China buying 130,100 tons offset by 125,000 tons in cancellations from unknown destinations; marketing-year sorghum exports are 184.3 million bushels, compared to 58.9 million a year ago. The next USDA supply and demand estimates are out June 11.
More This Week
💰 Iowa diesel averages $5.33 a gallon, up from $3.35 last year. — LINK
Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship data show retail diesel averaged $5.33 per gallon this week, down 3 cents on the week but up from $3.35 per gallon one year ago — a 59% year-over-year increase.
"If you've got a processor 50, 60 miles away and you're burning 4 to 6 gallons of diesel per mile, it's definitely not fun to fill up a semi as everybody knows," said Cordt Holub, a corn and soybean producer south of Waterloo, Iowa.
Holub told Brownfield that diesel for trucking has become his single biggest expense and that fueling combines and grain logistics will be "extremely expensive" at harvest if prices don't fall by fall.
📋 USDA reinstates Crop Inputs Economist position. — LINK
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins reinstated the Crop Inputs Economist within the Office of the Chief Economist to deliver recurring, independent analysis of fertilizer supply, demand, trade, and pricing, according to The Fertilizer Institute (TFI).
TFI welcomed the move as a response to producer-level input cost volatility and a step toward greater transparency in fertilizer markets.
The position will track the four major nutrients used across U.S. row crop production, restoring a federal analytical function that had previously been eliminated.
🚜 Deere flags 15–20% drop in large ag equipment sales for 2026. — LINK
John Deere projects U.S. and Canada large ag equipment sales to decline 15–20% in fiscal 2026, citing low crop prices and rising input costs as the primary drags on farm-level demand.
The company held its full-year net-income target unchanged at $4.5–$5 billion, despite beating analyst expectations on quarterly earnings.
The forecast follows multiple consecutive quarters of declining North American large ag sales as producers defer replacement purchases amid tight margins.
🌧️ Climate Prediction Center puts El Niño odds at 82% within three months. — LINK
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center pegs the probability of El Niño emerging within the next three months at 82%, with potential drought relief for the U.S. Southern Plains later in the year.
The same pattern threatens crop-growing conditions across Australia, Indonesia, India, and northern Brazil, where El Niño historically reduces rainfall during key development windows.
The transition follows an extended La Niña phase that contributed to multi-year drought conditions across portions of the U.S. Plains and Mexico.
Basis Watch
North Dakota North Central soybean basis firmed 15 cents at the top end on Thursday, the day's largest move across both commodities. Other North Dakota soybean locations followed the same direction, with Central firming 5 cents on the low end and East Central firming 5 cents on the high end. Illinois soybean bids were quieter, with Wabash softening 2 cents and small 1-cent improvements at Southwest and West.
Corn basis improvements clustered in the western Plains and Dakotas. Nebraska Northwest firmed 6 cents at the top end, Kansas Northwest improved 5 cents, and Kansas West Central, Missouri Northwest, and Missouri West each firmed 5 cents. North Dakota Central, East Central, and North Central corn locations all firmed 5 cents, consistent with the spring old-crop clearout pattern.
Source: USDA AMS
Iowa retail diesel averaged $5.33 per gallon in mid-May 2026, up 59% from $3.35 a year earlier, according to the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship.
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