Row Crops Today — May 20, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
🌍 Ohio State economist: China deal ceiling sits $8B below 2022 export peak
🏭 Nitrogen fertilizer prices up 62% since Strait of Hormuz blockade
🏦 Farm credit conditions soften for tenth consecutive quarter, Chicago Fed says
🔬 Asian copperleaf confirmed in Iowa and Illinois corn and soybean fields
🫘 White mold cost soybean growers $281M in 2024 as R2 fungicide window opens
Top Story
🌍 China ag purchase deal could top out $8 billion below the 2022 peak, Ohio State economist says. — LINK
Ohio State University agricultural economist Ian Sheldon estimates that even full Chinese compliance with the new purchase framework would bring US agricultural exports to China to roughly $28 billion to $30 billion — still well short of the $38 billion 2022 peak. Sheldon says the agreement contains no clear enforcement mechanism, leaving producers exposed if Beijing falls behind on stated targets. The analysis arrives as corn and soybean futures continue to digest last week's $17 billion announcement, with Sheldon warning that the headline figure obscures a structural gap of roughly $8 billion versus pre-trade-war volumes. "Even if China fully complies, we're looking at a level of trade that is still about $8 billion below where we were at the peak in 2022, and there's no clear enforcement mechanism," Sheldon said. China remains the largest single foreign buyer of US soybeans, and Sheldon noted that South American supply growth over the past four years has permanently shifted Beijing's sourcing options away from a US-dominant model.
More This Week
🏭 Nitrogen fertilizer prices up 62% since Strait of Hormuz blockade. — LINK
Nitrogen fertilizer prices have surged 62% since the Strait of Hormuz blockade disrupted Middle East ammonia and urea flows, prompting USDA to fast-track a $3.7 billion ammonia plant in Louisiana aimed at reducing reliance on foreign supply.
Nutrien president Ken Seitz has told investors farmers are unlikely to materially cut planted acres despite the cost shock, citing forward sales and crop insurance coverage already locked in for 2026.
A handful of foreign producers account for the majority of US nitrogen imports; the Augusta-area plant tied to the announcement is expected to add domestic production capacity over a multi-year buildout.
🏦 Farm credit conditions soften for tenth consecutive quarter. — LINK
A Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago survey shows non-real-estate farm loan demand in the Seventh District rose for the tenth straight quarter in Q1 2026, with 17% of farm borrowers carrying more carryover debt into 2026 than the prior year.
"There's still a lot of demand for loans, particularly operating loans, but then the availability of funds and the rates of loan repayments are both down from a year ago, and the renewals and extensions of loans are up from a year ago," said David Oppedahl, policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
The Seventh District covers all or parts of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
🔬 Asian copperleaf confirmed in Iowa and Illinois row crop fields. — LINK
Asian copperleaf (Acalypha australis) can produce up to 150,000 seeds per plant, with seeds remaining viable in the soil seedbank for several years; the weed was first reported in Illinois in 2022 and has now been confirmed in several counties in western and central Iowa.
University of Illinois Extension and Iowa State University researchers are monitoring the spread and evaluating additional control strategies, stressing an integrated weed-management approach.
Pre-emergence options noted include acetochlor, metolachlor, or S-metolachlor; post-emergence options include glyphosate on tolerant crops or a 2,4-D and dicamba mix when the weed is still small.
🫘 White mold cost soybean growers $281M in 2024 as R2 window approaches. — LINK
White mold cost US soybean farmers an estimated $281.1 million in yield losses in 2024, and BASF technical service representative Ken Deibert says the optimal fungicide application window is at the early R2 growth stage, coinciding closely with canopy closure.
"Timing, timing, timing, because that's what it's all about in terms of white mold control," said Ken Deibert, BASF technical service representative covering eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.
White mold infections begin at flowering; Deibert says rotation into a grass crop such as corn or wheat breaks the disease cycle, and wider row spacing improves airflow in high-risk fields.
Basis Watch
North Dakota Central and East Central soybeans firmed 10 cents on Tuesday, May 19, the day's largest moves across both crops. Old-crop soybean basis strengthened 5 cents at Iowa South Central, Kansas South Central, and a handful of Missouri locations including Central, Northwest, and West. On the new-crop side, Illinois North soybean bids improved 5 cents against the November contract.
Corn basis activity was more muted. Missouri Northwest old-crop corn firmed 5 cents at the top of its range, while Illinois Southwest improved 4 cents and Illinois West, Nebraska Northwest, Iowa Northeast, and Iowa Southwest posted gains of 1 to 2 cents. Illinois North new-crop corn weakened 1 cent against December.
Source: USDA AMS
17% of Seventh District farm borrowers carried more debt into 2026 than the prior year — the tenth consecutive quarter of rising non-real-estate farm loan demand, per Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago data.
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