Row Crops Today — May 8, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
📊 May 12 WASDE will deliver first 2026/27 balance sheet for corn and soybeans
🫘 Soybean export sales fall to marketing-year low, down 45% on the week
🔬 Farmdoc: corn and soybean revenue gains outpace $20–$27/acre fertilizer hit
🌧️ USDA's Rippey: drought now covers 63% of lower 48, nearing 2012 levels
🌽 UW–Madison: cut corn N rates 20–30 lb/acre as N:corn price ratio hits 0.20
Top Story
📊 The May 12 WASDE will set the first 2026/27 balance sheet for corn and soybeans. — LINK
USDA releases the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Tuesday at noon Eastern, the first report of the 2026/27 marketing year for corn and soybeans and the first to publish full new-crop balance sheets. May projections historically carry wide variance against final numbers; the 2020/21 marketing year saw corn ending stocks revised by roughly 2 billion bushels and the season-average farm price swing $1.33 per bushel from the May estimate to the final figure. USDA will also update old-crop 2025/26 figures, where soybean export pace has trailed last year. Cumulative 2025/26 soybean exports stand at 1.43 billion bushels, down from 1.749 billion at the same point a year earlier, according to the latest USDA export sales data. Corn exports are running ahead at 3.034 billion bushels versus 2.378 billion last year. The May report typically carries USDA's first survey-based winter wheat production estimate and the first look at new-crop demand assumptions for feed, ethanol, and exports.
More This Week
🫘 Soybean export sales drop to marketing-year low. — LINK
Old-crop soybean export sales totaled 141,900 tons (5.2 million bushels) for the week ending April 30, down 45% from the prior week and 51% from the four-week average; cumulative 2025/26 soybean exports stand at 1.43 billion bushels versus 1.749 billion a year ago.
"China was the leading buyer, it was a routine amount, as Beijing continues to favor beans from Brazil due to price," the USDA reported, with unknown destinations canceling on 96,000 tons during the same week.
Corn export sales reached 1,361,700 tons (53.6 million bushels), down 15% on the week; cumulative corn exports are 3.034 billion bushels, compared with 2.378 billion at this point last year.
🔬 Farmdoc: revenue gains outpace fertilizer hit on Illinois farms. — LINK
University of Illinois farmdoc analysts find anhydrous ammonia rose from $828/ton pre-conflict to $1,123/ton on April 17 — a $27/acre fertilizer cost increase for corn — while higher 2026 forward prices added $96/acre in expected corn revenue and $72/acre in soybean revenue, leaving net returns above fertilizer costs up roughly $73/acre for corn and $70/acre for soybeans.
"All farms will face the brunt of higher prices in 2027, leading to consideration of adjustments such as lowering application rates, switching to anhydrous ammonia, and moving applications to post-plant," the farmdoc authors wrote.
DAP rose only from $862 to $870/ton and potash from $493 to $505/ton in the same period; farmdoc projects 2027 ammonia prices "significantly above $1,000 per ton" with DAP potentially near $1,000/ton.
🌧️ Rippey: drought covers 63% of lower 48, nearing 2012 levels. — LINK
USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey reports drought now covers approximately 63% of the lower 48 states — approaching 2012 record territory — though only 27% of corn and 30% of soybean production area is currently affected, versus 100% for peanuts and cotton.
Rippey described "a sharp line between the haves and have-nots" in terms of soil moisture, with the Midwest remaining relatively optimistic while the Western U.S. faces a persistent ridge of high pressure expected to intensify drought there.
Late April and early May forecasts indicate late-season frost risk in the Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Corn Belt; Drought Monitor–linked Livestock Forage Disaster Program payments have totaled nearly $30 billion over the program's 27-year history.
🌽 UW–Madison: cut corn N rates 20–30 lb/acre at current price ratio. — LINK
Commercial nitrogen prices are up roughly 30% since fall 2025, pushing the N:corn price ratio to 0.20 — double the 10-year average — which UW–Madison MRTN guidelines translate to corn N-application rates 20–30 lb/acre lower than prior recommendations.
"Identifying cost-effective application rates, accounting for on-farm nitrogen sources, assessing soil N credits, and measuring nitrogen use efficiency can help improve corn enterprise profitability this year and for many years to come," wrote Todd Prill, UW–Madison Division of Extension.
The Pre-Sidedress Nitrate Test runs about $13 per sample at a 12-inch depth when corn is 6–12 inches tall; first-year corn following alfalfa or fields receiving at least 10,000 gallons of liquid dairy manure typically show a negative return on additional commercial N.
Basis Watch
On Thursday, May 7th, old-crop corn basis weakened sharply at Kansas Northwest, where the low end broke 18 cents. Smaller declines of 5 to 6 cents hit Illinois Little Egypt, Illinois Southwest, and Kentucky Pennyrile. Illinois South Central firmed 3 cents on the low end, while Iowa Southeast edged down one to two cents, while Iowa Southwest was within a cent of unchanged. The 18-cent break at Kansas Northwest was well beyond what any other corn location reported.
Old-crop soybean basis improved across a band of locations, with Illinois West firming 6 cents on the high end. Iowa North Central, Iowa Northwest, Missouri Central, and North Dakota East Central each strengthened 5 cents. Illinois Little Egypt and Illinois Southwest softened 3 cents. Kentucky Pennyrile new-crop November beans declined a single cent.
Source: USDA AMS
Drought now covers roughly 63% of the lower 48 states, approaching levels last seen in the severe drought year of 2012, according to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey.
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