Row Crops Today — April 30, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
📋 House yanks farm bill from floor after E15 dispute fractures GOP caucus; vote delayed to mid-May
🔬 NDSU model pegs fall prepay urea at $733/ton — 56% above pre-crisis benchmark
💰 Martinson sees December corn pushing $5 as fertilizer crunch trims ~1M corn acres
🏦 Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies hit 315 in 2025, up 46% year over year
📋 Marshall introduces bill to drop Moroccan phosphate duties, projecting 20% price cut
Top Story
📋 House Republicans pulled the farm bill from the floor after an E15 fuel dispute fractured the caucus. — LINK
The House passed a floor rule Wednesday 216-210 to open debate on H.R. 7567, but only after a procedural vote that stretched more than two hours as nearly 20 Republican members withheld support. Leadership then pulled the farm bill from the package before it reached an actual floor vote. The central fracture: an amendment by Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.) — backed by 47 bipartisan co-sponsors — to authorize year-round E15 sales was stripped from the bill after the Congressional Budget Office scored its small refinery exemption changes as costing several billion dollars, colliding with budget-neutral constraints. Rep. Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.) led opposition to the provision. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) separately announced she would not support the bill unless a pesticide liability protection was removed, saying she had been "accosted by two Republican members" over the issue. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) indicated the bill would return to the floor in roughly two weeks — after a scheduled weeklong recess — putting final House passage in mid-May at the earliest. The delay leaves crop insurance reauthorization, Title I commodity programs, and conservation funding unresolved as planters roll across the Corn Belt and Great Plains. The Senate Agriculture Committee has not yet scheduled its own markup, and with the September 30 expiration of current farm bill authorities approaching, mid-May House passage is the critical path to a compressed Senate timeline through the summer.
More This Week
🔬 NDSU model: fall prepay urea projected at $733/ton under base scenario. — LINK
The April 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor projects fall prepay urea at NOLA averaging $733/ton under a "Contested Transit" scenario — 56% above the pre-crisis February benchmark of $470/ton — and $989/ton under an "Extended Conflict" scenario, with DAP peaking at $866/ton and $945/ton respectively.
"Fertilizer budgets for the 2027 crop should be built around higher nitrogen and phosphate costs than seemed likely before the Strait closure," the Farmdoc analysis states, noting the Persian Gulf normally accounts for about 40% of globally traded urea exports and 44% of seaborne sulfur.
Under the central scenario, the urea-to-corn affordability ratio reaches 174 bushels per ton — compared with 110 at the 2022 Russia-Ukraine peak and a long-run average of 79 — with nearby corn at $4.40-$4.60/bu versus more than $7.50/bu in 2022.
💰 Martinson sees ~1 million corn acres lost as December futures press $5. — LINK
December corn closed in on the March contract high of $4.98 1/2 Tuesday as Martinson Ag analyst Randy Martinson said fertilizer shortages and higher input costs could pull roughly 1 million acres off a 93-million-acre corn base.
"I've been expecting corn to be closer to the 93 million acre level. So I expect we could lose close to a million acres of corn," said Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag.
Hard red winter and hard red spring wheat both posted new contract highs Tuesday with futures up 25-30 cents; spring wheat planting stood at 19% complete versus the 22% five-year average.
🏦 Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies climbed 46% in 2025. — LINK
Chapter 12 filings reached 315 in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and 139 in 2023, with Farm Credit System loan volume growing from $398 billion to $456 billion over the same span and the share of non-performing loans more than doubling to over 1%.
"It's going to be frustrating to the farm producers. They would prefer to get it from the market than from the government," said Allen Featherstone, agricultural economist at Kansas State University, referring to nearly $10 billion in bridge assistance under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
The 2025 total remains well below prior peaks — 599 filings in 2019 and more than 700 in both 2010 and 2003 — with the largest 2025 increases concentrated in the Midwest and Southeast, led by Arkansas and Georgia.
📋 Marshall files bill to scrap Moroccan phosphate duties. — LINK
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) introduced the Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act on April 28 to eliminate countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports, citing Texas A&M analysis projecting a more than 20% price cut — about $150 per ton.
"This would lower the cost of phosphate fertilizer by more than 20%. Those numbers are from Texas A&M… that's $150 per ton, and that's real money when it comes to a Kansas farmer," said Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas.
The bill is backed by NCGA, ASA, AFBF, the National Cotton Council, USA Rice, Sorghum Growers, and NAWG; NAWG CEO Sam Kieffer said wheat growers alone have borne nearly $1 billion in additional costs from the existing duties.
Basis Watch
Old-crop corn basis firmed across several Midwest locations, led by Missouri East where the floor strengthened 25 cents to 63 under July. Colorado North Central new-crop corn improved 10 cents on the floor, holding at a premium to December at 30 over to 40 over. Illinois North Central narrowed 5 cents to 30 under May, and Minnesota Northeast firmed 5 cents on both ends to a range of 82 under to 70 under July. The Missouri East 25-cent jump was well above the rest of the corn list, where most moves clustered between 2 and 5 cents.
Old-crop soybean basis improved 10 cents at Illinois West, narrowing the ceiling to 14 under May, and Minnesota Northeast firmed 10 cents on top to 95 under. Illinois Little Egypt strengthened 6 cents on the floor and continued trading at a premium on the ceiling at 30 over May. Wabash new-crop soybeans firmed 5 cents to 35 under November. Illinois Southwest held a ceiling at 13 over May after a 4-cent gain. Remaining locations across Iowa and Illinois posted moves of 1 to 3 cents.
U.S. Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings reached 315 in 2025 — more than double the 139 filed in 2023 — while Farm Credit System loan balances grew from $398 billion to $456 billion over the same two-year span.
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