Row Crops Today — June 18, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
⛽ Grassley warns Senate E15 push is now-or-never as legislative vehicle stalls
💰 Urea falls 5% on US-Iran peace deal news, now 53% below spring peak
🔬 Tar spot confirmed in Indiana and three Iowa fields as wet pattern persists
🏦 Chicago Fed loan renewal index hits 136, highest since Q2 2020
Top Story
⛽ Senate E15 push hangs by a thread. — LINK
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) told agriculture reporters this week that the Senate push for year-round nationwide E15 is faltering, with no clear legislative vehicle to carry the higher-ethanol fuel standard across the finish line in 2026. Proponents argue broader E15 adoption would drive millions of additional corn acres into the market by expanding blend demand beyond the current 10% baseline. "If we don't get E15 this year, we're never going to get it," said Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa. Grassley said the window is narrowing as the legislative calendar fills and competing energy priorities crowd out fuel-standard language. A patchwork of state-level summer waivers has kept E15 available in parts of the Corn Belt, but ethanol groups have long argued that only a permanent federal fix will unlock retailer investment in higher blends. Roughly 40% of the U.S. corn crop already flows into ethanol production, and any expansion of the blend wall is closely tracked by Corn Belt producers as a direct lever on long-run corn demand.
More This Week
💰 Urea drops 5% on US-Iran peace deal, but all eight fertilizers still above year-ago. — LINK
Urea at New Orleans fell roughly 5%, or about $20 per ton, on Monday following news of the preliminary US-Iran peace deal, marking a 53% drop from the spring high; DTN's retail survey put urea at $764/ton, down 12% from a month earlier.
"When it comes to moving ships through the Strait of Hormuz, it's going to be oil tankers and LNG carriers that are top of the list once we get towards a more normal flow of traffic," said Alexis Ellender, senior dry bulk lead at Kpler. "Fertilizer is not as high a priority."
All eight major fertilizers remain above year-ago levels — anhydrous is up 41%, UAN32 27%, urea 16%, MAP 15%, DAP 13%, 10-34-0 8%, and potash 4%; over 40 vessels laden with fertilizer remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, with weekly exports down 90% from pre-conflict levels.
🔬 Wet June sets the table for tar spot in Indiana and Iowa. — LINK
Wyffels Hybrids agronomy manager Robby Meeker confirmed tar spot detections in Indiana and in three fields in Iowa, with the mid-August fungicide window cited as the highest-ROI application timing.
"The June rains are really what set the table and open the door for tar spot exposure," said Robby Meeker, agronomy manager at Wyffels Hybrids. "If we can get that splash event here early in the year, that's what can bring on the later onset of tar spot."
Meeker said warm, humid conditions following infection accelerate disease development, and that earlier mid-August onset is more damaging than a September arrival when the milk line is already three-quarters down.
🏦 Chicago Fed: ag loan renewals at five-year high, 17% of borrowers carrying more debt. — LINK
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's loan renewal and extension index hit 136 in Q1 2026 — its highest value since Q2 2020 — and 17% of farm borrowers carried more debt into 2026 than they did in 2025, per the bank's AgLetter.
"Cash flow projections for many operations are at or below breakeven for 2026 and many borrowers are using up working capital to fund the cash flow shortfall," an Iowa lender told the Chicago Fed AgLetter.
U.S. inflation rose to a three-year high of 4.2% in May, up from 3.8% in April; average Chicago district ag interest rates stand at 7.08% for operating loans, 7.12% for feeder cattle loans, and 6.74% for real estate loans.
Basis Watch
Nebraska Northwest old-crop corn basis firmed 10 cents on Wednesday, the largest move in the corn complex. Nebraska Southwest improved 6 cents on its top bid, and a cluster of 5-cent gains showed up across Illinois South Central, Missouri West, and the North Dakota Central and East Central locations. New-crop corn at Illinois South Central firmed 4 cents on the December contract. Smaller 1- to 3-cent improvements ran through Colorado North Central and several other Nebraska locations.
Soybeans firmed more broadly. Missouri West led with a 15-cent gain on old-crop, followed by Minnesota South at 13 cents and 10-cent moves at Illinois South Central, Missouri Central, and South Dakota Northeast. Kentucky Pennyrile firmed 9 cents on the top end. New-crop soybean basis was quiet by comparison, with moves of 2 cents or less.
Source: USDA AMS
Even after a 53% drop from its spring peak, the urea-to-corn ratio still sits at 83.5 bushels of corn to buy a single ton of urea — well above historical averages.
How did you like today's issue? [email protected]