Row Crops Today — May 15, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
🌍 Bessent says China soybeans "all taken care of," cooling fresh-buying expectations
🫘 USDA pegs 2026/27 soybean oil exports at 400 million pounds — second-lowest since 1964/65
🌎 CONAB raises Brazil soybean crop to record 180.13 MMT, up 5% year over year
🌱 Indiana corn and soybeans hit 51% planted, on pace for earliest season on record
📋 OBBBA's 90% ARC trigger leaves benchmark price hikes doing little for 2026 payments
Top Story
🌍 Bessent says China's soybean commitments are "all taken care of." — LINK
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters Wednesday that China's 25 million metric ton annual soybean commitment through 2028 is already locked in, cooling expectations that the Trump-Xi summit would produce a fresh large-scale purchase announcement. Soybean futures fell 20 to 40 cents on the session, with July beans off 14.5 cents and cash bids averaging $11.28, as USDA also reported a marketing-year-low weekly export sales figure of 102,059 metric tons. "Soybeans are all taken care of," Bessent said, referring to the existing framework that calls for 25 MMT of annual Chinese purchases through 2028. The comment effectively removed a major near-term catalyst that traders had been pricing in since late April. China is the largest single buyer of U.S. soybeans, and the 25 MMT annual figure roughly matches the volume Beijing committed to under the prior phase-one trade deal.
More This Week
🫘 Soybean oil exports projected near zero as biofuel demand absorbs crush. — LINK
The May WASDE pegged 2026/27 U.S. soybean oil exports at 400 million pounds — the second-lowest level since data began in 1964/65 — while domestic crush is projected at 2.75 billion bushels and soybean oil production at 32,590 million pounds, up more than 35% since 2020/21.
"Diminished elasticity means more price volatility, so market participants should likely anticipate greater swings in soybean oil prices this year and next relative to historical conditions," wrote the Farmdoc Daily authors at the University of Illinois.
2026/27 soybean ending stocks are projected at 310 million bushels, 40 million below pre-report estimates; the stocks-to-use ratio sits at 6.9%, with oilseed exports of 1.63 billion bushels only slightly above the current marketing year's level.
🌎 CONAB lifts Brazil soybean crop to record 180.13 MMT. — LINK
CONAB raised Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop to 180.13 million metric tons, up 0.5% on the month and 5% above last year, with 2025/26 export sales pegged at 116 MMT — 7.25% more than 2024/25.
Brazil's total corn production was raised 0.4% from April to 140.171 million tons, with the first crop at 28.461 million tons (up 14.1% year over year) and the third crop at 3.255 million tons (up 30.9% from April).
The 2025/26 second corn crop slipped 0.6% month over month to 105.455 million tons on weather issues; CONAB's next estimate is scheduled for June 11.
🌱 Indiana corn and soybeans 51% planted as 2026 tracks earliest on record. — LINK
USDA's latest Crop Progress report showed Indiana corn and soybeans at 51% planted, with DEKALB ASGROW agronomist Jordan Arndell reporting many southwest Indiana fields already complete.
"This time last year, we didn't even have our first crop in the ground," Arndell said. "Despite some of the challenges we've had, we're certainly setting the stage for a good growing season."
Arndell flagged cool, wet follow-up weather as a disease-pressure risk, noting that later planting typically correlates with heavier southern rust and tar spot pressure.
📋 90% ARC trigger blunts impact of higher 2026 benchmark prices. — LINK
A rule change under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the ARC-CO payment trigger from 86% to 90% of benchmark revenue, meaning higher projected 2026 corn and soybean benchmark prices alone are unlikely to generate meaningful ARC payments without a county-level yield shortfall.
Under the revised formula, county yields remain the primary path to ARC support in 2026, with payments triggered only when actual county revenue falls below 90% of the benchmark.
ARC and PLC election decisions for the 2026 crop year fall under the OBBBA-revised commodity title framework, which also adjusted reference prices for covered commodities including corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum.
Basis Watch
Nebraska South Central soybeans firmed 15 cents on Thursday, the day's largest move across either crop. Missouri Northeast soybeans followed with a 12-cent improvement, and old-crop bids strengthened 10 cents at both South Dakota East Central and South Dakota Southeast. New-crop soybean basis firmed 5 cents at Illinois North and Minnesota South, while Iowa Northwest old-crop narrowed 4 cents. Illinois Little Egypt and Illinois Southwest each softened 3 cents on the old-crop contract.
On the corn side, Illinois North Central new-crop weakened 5 cents, the biggest corn move of the session. Old-crop corn firmed 5 cents at Nebraska South Central, South Dakota Southeast, Minnesota South, and Colorado North Central. Iowa North Central improved 4 cents and Illinois North Central firmed 3 cents.
Source: USDA AMS
USDA projects U.S. soybean oil exports at just 400 million pounds for 2026/27 — the second-lowest level on record since 1964/65 — as domestic biofuel demand absorbs nearly the entire crush output.
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