Row Crops Today — May 7, 2026
The 5-minute 5 AM brief for row crop producers and ag professionals
Headline Stack
🔬 Anhydrous ammonia up 36% since late February, adding $27/acre to corn costs
📊 Corn export shipments hit 66.5% of USDA forecast — fastest pace since 2018/19
💰 Schnitkey warns of repeat 2027 cash-flow shortfall without price recovery or aid
🚜 Iowa planters running at 950,000 acres per day before mid-week storm system
📊 May 12 WASDE opens new marketing year for corn and soybeans
Top Story
🔬 Anhydrous ammonia jumps 36% since the Iran conflict began. — LINK
Anhydrous ammonia rose from $828/ton before the Iran conflict to $1,123/ton by April 17, a 36% increase that adds roughly $27 per acre to corn fertilizer costs, according to a Farmdoc Daily analysis from the University of Illinois. Nitrogen solution (28%) climbed 25% to $543/ton over the same window, while phosphate (DAP) and potash moved only 1–2% because most spring needs had been pre-purchased. The disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for global urea and ammonia trade — is the central driver cited in the analysis. The authors note that elevated nitrogen prices are likely to persist into the 2027 crop year given the structural nature of the supply disruption. Agronomic mitigation options discussed include rate adjustments based on soil tests and shifting application timing to side-dress, where in-season prices may differ. The Farmdoc piece pegs the additional 2026 corn nitrogen bill at roughly $27 per acre relative to pre-conflict pricing for a 200-bushel yield goal.
More This Week
📊 Corn export shipments running 550 million bushels ahead of USDA's pace. — LINK
USDA reported corn export inspections of 79.8 million bushels for the week ended April 30, the second-highest weekly total of the marketing year, with cumulative shipments at 2.129 billion bushels — 66.5% of USDA's 3.2-billion-bushel full-year estimate, versus a 10-year average of 56.9%.
"The persistent strength in shipments and the above-average pace indicates there is room for growth in USDA's export forecast," Pro Farmer wrote, projecting shipments could reach 3.75 billion bushels at the 10-year average pace.
That projection would put exports 550 million bushels above USDA's current forecast — a pace not touched since the 2018/19 marketing year.
💰 Schnitkey: 2027 crop faces repeat cash-flow shortfall without aid or price recovery. — LINK
University of Illinois farm management specialist Gary Schnitkey said in a recent FarmDoc webinar that the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program helped 2026 cash flows, but the 2027 crop faces another shortage absent further support or stronger prices.
"If we don't get something like that for the 2027 crop, or corn and soybean prices go up considerably, we're going to be looking at another shortage of cash flow," Schnitkey said.
Schnitkey said high-profit operations consistently rank as the lowest-cost producers and are focused on maximizing returns rather than yields, with some farmers exploring premiums from non-GMO soybeans, food-grade corn and organics.
🚜 Iowa planting hits 950,000 acres per day ahead of mid-week storms. — LINK
Iowa corn planting jumped from 22% to 42% in a week and soybeans climbed from 11% to 27%, with ISU Extension field agronomist Angie Rieck Hinz estimating the state can cover up to 950,000 acres in a single good day.
"If we have a really good day in the state of Iowa, we can plant about 950,000 acres a day, so that's pretty substantial," Rieck Hinz said.
Soil temperatures are holding near 50°F, but the Story City area received about seven inches of rain in April — well above average — and a multi-day severe weather system arriving mid-week threatens to close the current planting window.
📊 May 12 WASDE opens the new marketing year for corn and soybeans. — LINK
The May 12 WASDE will publish USDA's first 2026/27 balance sheets for corn and soybeans, historically among the most market-moving releases of the calendar year.
Analysts are watching whether USDA raises its 3.2-billion-bushel corn export estimate given shipments running 9.6 percentage points ahead of the 10-year average.
The May report typically introduces new-crop ending stocks, yield assumptions and demand projections that anchor price expectations through the summer.
Basis Watch
On Wednesday, May 6th, the corn market saw most of the action concentrated in old-crop bids. Missouri Northeast old-crop corn weakened sharply, with bids breaking 22 cents against the July contract. Other corn locations were quiet, with Iowa Southeast firming 2 cents and Kentucky Pennyrile and Illinois North new-crop holding within a cent of unchanged.
In soybeans, North Dakota Central and North Dakota North Central old-crop bids both improved 10 cents at the low end against July. Iowa Southeast old-crop firmed 7 cents at the top of its range, while Missouri Northeast softened 5 cents. New-crop soybean bids in Illinois North, Illinois West, and Kentucky Pennyrile drifted within a cent or two of unchanged. The 22-cent break in Missouri Northeast corn stood well outside the range of every other move on the board.
At the current 10-year average pace, U.S. corn export shipments could reach roughly 3.75 billion bushels by marketing-year end — about 550 million bushels above USDA's 3.2-billion-bushel forecast.
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